Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d05…ce70 tech 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$220 (-10%) realized −$159 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%48W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$168
14 days−$168
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$3
tech 34% −$194
sports 10% −$48
world 7% −$20
crypto 2% +$13
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -16.1% -24.1% 42% 33% -19.5%
≤30d 49 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 37% -18.1%
≤90d 92 -12.8% -21.1% 52% 37% -18.6%
all 92 -12.8% -21.1% 52% 37% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 37% -18.6%
10% -28.7% 18% -26.4%
15% -35.6% 14% -33.5%
20% -41.9% 9% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses48 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage73d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of June 22 2026? No 81¢ 32¢ $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $319 +$3 +1%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$7 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 −$75 -73%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $102 +$38 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 +$48 +47%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $31 −$8 -27%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 $0 -9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $21 +$3 +14%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$5 +25%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 −$33 -58%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$10 +23%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$55 +78%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 +$5 +44%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of April? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 19 $14 −$3 -18%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 19 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $457.50 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 4? Jun 19 $49 −$38 -78%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $412.50 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $405 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $33 +$2 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $19 +$4 +20%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $30 +$31 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -65%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $220? Jun 03 $20 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $16 +$2 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May? May 30 $12 +$5 +39%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 19 $45 −$41 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $97 40m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $319 5h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $109 5h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $28 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $66 6h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 6h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 18h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 18h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $22 18h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $31 20h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 20h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 83¢ $51 20h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 80¢ $48 20h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 67¢ $1 20h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $100 20h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $36 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 33h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $21 43h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.72 · official $238.72 (match) · 379 history records