Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7D 0x7d08…0a33 politics 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,992 (+52%) realized +$1,992 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,276per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$46
politics 24% +$1,904
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 3 +55.3% +40.5% 67% 33% +36.6%
≤90d 3 +55.3% +40.5% 67% 33% +36.6%
all 3 +55.3% +40.5% 67% 33% +36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.5% 33% +36.6%
10% +27.1% 33% +23.5%
15% +14.8% 33% +11.6%
20% +3.6% 33% +0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,008 vs −$67 · ×14.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×29.98 per $1 lost it wins $29.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,992
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage32d
Avg bet$1,276
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,910 +$46 +2%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $827 +$1,971 +238%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $91 −$67 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,495 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,504 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,461 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,407 2h
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 100¢ $2,687 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 5¢ $6 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 5¢ $129 21d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 8¢ $24 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 6¢ $111 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 29¢ $3 30d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 28¢ $27 30d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 28¢ $6 30d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 28¢ $46 30d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 28¢ $11 30d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 29¢ $2 30d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 31¢ $21 30d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 31¢ $206 30d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $3 31d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $10 31d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $10 31d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $10 31d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $20 31d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $31 31d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $307 31d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 35¢ $71 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records