Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d08…6964 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$18
politics 29% −$20
sports 11% −$34
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -2.2% -11.5% 11% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage127d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $221 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $452 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $206 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $269 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $536 −$8 -2%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $216 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $277 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $215 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $489 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $545 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $277 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $287 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $514 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $40 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 9h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 11h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 24h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 40h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 15d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $220 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $221 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 28d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 376 history records