Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7D 0x7d0c…f02b crypto 236 markets active 2d ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$249 (+23%) realized +$249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%92W / 144L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$208
14 days+$208
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$232
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +72.2% +55.8% 78% 78% +76.1%
≤30d 36 +72.2% +55.8% 78% 78% +76.1%
≤90d 69 +19.4% +8.0% 49% 49% +38.5%
all 236 +13.9% +3.0% 39% 39% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 39% +10.6%
10% -6.8% 36% +0.0%
15% -15.8% 34% -9.6%
20% -24.1% 33% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses92 / 144
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage106d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$6 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$155 +1384%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$12 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +173%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$11 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +218%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 28 $3 +$6 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 22 $3 +$6 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $11 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 561 history records