Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d0c…a3b7 sports 680 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2189 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$20,270 (-30%) realized −$19,757 · open −$513
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +166% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +105% what you keep after slip
Net edge+105%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%157W / 72L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2188.7pace
Fees−$710est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$71,866now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$15,844
other 28% $0
crypto 0% +$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2189 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+140.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 +165.7% +140.4% 69% 59% +44.9%
≤30d 229 +165.7% +140.4% 69% 59% +44.9%
≤90d 229 +165.7% +140.4% 69% 59% +44.9%
all 229 +165.7% +140.4% 69% 59% +44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2188.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +140.4% 59% +44.9%
10% ← realistic here +117.4% 53% +31.1%
15% +96.4% 46% +18.4%
20% +77.1% 42% +6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +166% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +213% → late +119% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$49 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.78 per $1 lost it wins $5.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71,866
Realized−$19,757
Unrealized−$513
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses157 / 72
Est. fees paid−$710
Open positions500
Markets (closed)229 / 680
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2188.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 70¢ $899 $857 −$42 (-5%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $701 $705 +$4 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 42¢ $695 $613 −$81 (-12%)
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Cabo Verde 94¢ 94¢ $518 $513 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Tunisia 94¢ 94¢ $510 $513 +$3 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Under 97¢ 98¢ $512 $513 +$1 (+0%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $512 $513 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) New Zealand 95¢ 95¢ $514 $510 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Netherlands 94¢ 93¢ $518 $510 −$8 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Austria 95¢ 94¢ $516 $510 −$5 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Under 97¢ 96¢ $512 $509 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Senegal 93¢ 92¢ $511 $508 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) IR Iran 91¢ 92¢ $507 $508 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Algeria (-3.5) Jordan 94¢ 94¢ $510 $508 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Côte dIvoire 92¢ 90¢ $519 $508 −$11 (-2%)
Spread: France (-4.5) Iraq 82¢ 81¢ $508 $503 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-3.5) South Africa 95¢ 96¢ $500 $502 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) Panama 93¢ 94¢ $499 $502 +$3 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Under 99¢ 99¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Czechia 92¢ 92¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Under 99¢ 98¢ $499 $497 −$2 (-0%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $498 $495 −$3 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $499 $494 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Haiti 84¢ 81¢ $509 $493 −$16 (-3%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Under 99¢ 99¢ $485 $485 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $12 +$45 +390%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $181 +$18 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $43 −$11 -26%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 20 $38 +$151 +398%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $54 −$5 -9%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $17 −$3 -18%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $23 −$8 -36%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 20 $44 −$2 -4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: UD Almería 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 −$1 -11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $26 +$48 +179%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $48 −$12 -25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $222 +$8 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $19 −$1 -7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $12 −$11 -90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $173 −$7 -4%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $5 +$7 +133%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 $0 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $0 +$1 +300%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $16 −$10 -64%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: UD Almería O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $26 −$12 -47%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 20 $17 −$1 -5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 −$4 -20%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $16 −$1 -4%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $19 −$3 -14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $11 +$16 +146%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 −$15 -76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $440 +$136 +31%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $307 −$100 -32%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $139 −$130 -93%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $500 −$60 -12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $160 −$124 -78%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $21 +$20 +96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $154 +$143 +93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $142 +$4 +3%
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $40 +$75 +190%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 −$2 -51%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $165 −$30 -18%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $134 −$81 -60%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $329 −$16 -5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $482 +$59 +12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $205 −$104 -51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $112 −$10 -9%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $93 +$19 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $126 −$91 -72%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $271 −$250 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $20 0m
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 0m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $12 2m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $12 3m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 29¢ $11 3m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 26¢ $2 3m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $8 4m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $12 4m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 4m
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $73 4m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $12 4m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 28¢ $189 4m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $0 6m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 6m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $13 6m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $6 6m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Second half draw? BUY No 63¢ $2 8m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $1 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $2 10m
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $1 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71,865.92 · official $73,068.77 · 3500 history records