Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d0d…fbb3 crypto 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,582 (-8%) realized −$2,594 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%95W / 113L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days+$173
14 days−$420
30 days+$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 91% −$2,682
sports 5% −$61
other 2% −$69
crypto 1% −$29
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +11.2% +0.6% 59% 59% +8.6%
≤30d 37 +8.5% -1.9% 62% 59% -2.4%
≤90d 94 -14.7% -22.8% 47% 44% -18.8%
all 208 -12.3% -20.6% 46% 43% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 43% -18.2%
10% -28.2% 38% -26.0%
15% -35.2% 34% -33.2%
20% -41.5% 26% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$50 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$2,594
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses95 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)208 / 215
History coverage102d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 72¢ 69¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 45¢ 60¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 53¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 18¢ 43¢ $7 $16 +$10 (+139%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Under 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $18 −$18 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $39 +$30 +77%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 22 $30 +$27 +90%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $21 +$25 +119%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $53 +$44 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 21 $32 +$20 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$22 +146%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 20 $66 −$35 -52%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$11 +59%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$64 +146%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$43 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $33 +$32 +96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $943 −$558 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 09 $39 −$18 -46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $71 −$17 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 05 $508 +$50 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 04 $940 +$179 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 04 $504 +$60 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $819 +$166 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $46 +$10 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 26 $1,260 +$418 +33%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $884 +$145 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $74 +$26 +36%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $10 +$29 +280%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $34 +$16 +46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 07 $100 −$64 -64%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $51 −$50 -99%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $470 +$111 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $1,071 +$95 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 01 $179 +$68 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $30 13m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 14m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $20 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $50 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $20 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $30 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $39 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $21 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $30 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $53 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $32 38h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $15 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 44h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 61¢ $33 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $30 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 24¢ $31 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $19 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $30 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $27 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $44 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.73 · official $168.30 (match) · 839 history records