Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d14…9b29 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$156 (-80%) realized −$138 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$122
other 36% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$19 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 19¢ 9¢ $35 $17 −$18 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $36 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $16 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 27¢ $10 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 27¢ $24 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $17 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $17 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $35 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $16 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $16 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.43 · official $17.98 (match) · 10 history records