Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d15…2bcb crypto 147 markets active 2d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%48W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$171
14 days−$171
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$217
weather 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -27.7% -34.6% 36% 35% -22.3%
≤30d 97 -27.7% -34.6% 36% 35% -22.3%
≤90d 147 -31.3% -37.9% 33% 30% -23.6%
all 147 -31.3% -37.9% 33% 30% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 30% -23.6%
10% -43.8% 24% -30.9%
15% -49.2% 20% -37.6%
20% -54.2% 18% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses48 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage35d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$11 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$13 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$14 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$20 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$27 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$12 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$41 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$32 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$31 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$23 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $18 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $9 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 667 history records