Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d16…f032 other 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19,406 (-11%) realized −$16,842 · open −$2,564
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 38L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,280per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$784est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$19,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22,781
7 days−$21,954
14 days−$21,954
30 days−$21,954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$12,317
sports 28% −$12,046
crypto 1% −$53
politics 0% −$323
world 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -10.9% -19.4% 18% 8% -23.1%
≤30d 40 -10.9% -19.4% 18% 8% -23.1%
≤90d 40 -10.9% -19.4% 18% 8% -23.1%
all 51 -8.7% -17.4% 25% 12% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 12% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 8% -30.4%
15% -32.5% 6% -37.1%
20% -39.2% 4% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,528) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$881 vs −$883 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$19,435
Realized−$16,842
Unrealized−$2,564
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$784
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage222d
Avg bet$3,280
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 80¢ $22,000 $19,435 −$2,564 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28,406 +$5,481 +19%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,107 −$18 -1%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,528 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,824 −$56 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $11,020 −$9,231 -84%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31,545 −$3,625 -12%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $17 −$13 -80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $920 −$138 -15%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $244 −$25 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,016 −$52 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,704 +$2,862 +61%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $669 −$71 -11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20,921 −$16,387 -78%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $15,484 +$884 +6%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6,567 −$2,081 -32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $2,500 −$161 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $1,315 −$51 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $1,002 −$16 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 13 $1,118 −$87 -8%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,932 +$1,695 +58%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $202 −$4 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $203 −$13 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $405 −$3 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $422 −$10 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 12 $405 +$4 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $710 −$91 -13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $487 −$110 -23%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,438 −$899 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $235 −$74 -32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,552 +$352 +10%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -12%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -14%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Feb 19 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? Nov 20 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 20 $850 +$6 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 20 $100 −$4 -4%
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31? Nov 20 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 20 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 19 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4? Nov 09 $110 +$52 +48%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $190 −$1 -0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $300 +$96 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,011 29m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20,054 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $25 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $23 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $70 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $3,500 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $77 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $3,650 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $140 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $675 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $25 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,148 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $438 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $60 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $269 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $48 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $68 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $45 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $296 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $20 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $100 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,435.49 · official $19,191.02 · 394 history records