Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7d16…e22f other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%25W / 24L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$470
7 days−$33
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$228
sports 15% +$160
world 9% −$468
crypto 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.9% -17.6% 59% 52% -10.0%
≤30d 49 -20.3% -27.9% 51% 45% -10.8%
≤90d 49 -20.3% -27.9% 51% 45% -10.8%
all 49 -20.3% -27.9% 51% 45% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 45% -10.8%
10% -34.8% 39% -19.3%
15% -41.1% 31% -27.1%
20% -46.8% 16% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$60 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses25 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage10d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 36¢ $110 $84 −$26 (-24%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $679 +$386 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$47 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $570 −$468 -82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $535 −$497 -93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $555 +$195 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $941 +$11 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $805 +$194 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $701 +$20 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $560 +$220 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $126 −$124 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $30 +$7 +23%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $24 +$40 +162%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 +$6 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$13 +126%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $112 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 95¢ $75 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $119 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $73 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $60 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,065 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $678 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $148 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $101 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $537 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $38 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.27 · official $84.27 (match) · 114 history records