Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d17…fa44 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$190 (+11%) realized +$195 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$22
14 days+$38
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$6
sports 35% +$9
crypto 10% −$30
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +19.7% +8.3% 44% 41% -7.5%
≤30d 43 -3.8% -12.9% 37% 33% -10.1%
≤90d 43 -3.8% -12.9% 37% 33% -10.1%
all 43 -3.8% -12.9% 37% 33% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 33% -10.1%
10% -21.3% 30% -18.7%
15% -28.9% 26% -26.5%
20% -35.8% 23% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$21 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage24d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$45 -72%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $41 −$22 -55%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $41 +$12 +30%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 −$91 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $31 +$25 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$13 +60%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$26 +509%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 −$29 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$28 -86%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$19 -93%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$42 +204%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$17 +84%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$44 +107%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$26 -64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$18 -46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$96 +234%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$2 -14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $202 −$140 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$5 -16%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 +$139 +68%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 29 $22 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 17m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $18 18m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 22m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 29m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $41 30m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $52 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $91 6h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $56 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $81 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 27h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $31 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 28¢ $20 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.20 · official $105.20 (match) · 113 history records