Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d18…9d98 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-12%) realized −$101 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day92.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -19.8% -27.4% 44% 37% -21.6%
≤30d 27 -19.8% -27.4% 44% 37% -21.6%
≤90d 27 -19.8% -27.4% 44% 37% -21.6%
all 27 -19.8% -27.4% 44% 37% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 37% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 19% -29.1%
15% -40.7% 15% -35.9%
20% -46.5% 11% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$45 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $62 −$18 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $102 −$37 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $86 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $57 −$48 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.40 · official $109.40 (match) · 115 history records