Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d19…f019 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 893d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,981 (-32%) realized −$1,971 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days−$165
14 days−$165
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$832
other 28% +$127
politics 17% −$1,025
sports 7% −$270
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +21.2% +9.6% 35% 35% -23.6%
≤30d 24 +16.1% +5.0% 33% 33% -30.2%
≤90d 24 +16.1% +5.0% 33% 33% -30.2%
all 46 +9.3% -1.1% 30% 28% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 28% -43.2%
10% -10.5% 28% -48.6%
15% -19.2% 26% -53.6%
20% -27.1% 22% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$93 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

893d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized−$1,971
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)46 / 53
History coverage893d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 28¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$45 +291%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$50 +982%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $102 −$53 -52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 24 $150 +$326 +218%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 20? Nov 20 $23 +$16 +71%
Jazz vs. Lakers Nov 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Oct 29 $200 +$4 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Oct 21 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October Oct 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Sep 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on Septembe Sep 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Sep 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on Septembe Sep 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on Septembe Sep 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Sep 20 $223 +$229 +102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on Septembe Sep 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on Septembe Sep 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24? Jul 24 $20 +$23 +113%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 19 $2,000 −$540 -27%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
LayerZero airdrop by June 30? Oct 30 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Oct 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $20 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $31 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $15 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 18¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 64¢ $6 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 62¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $31 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.63 · official $509.65 (match) · 89 history records