Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d1b…7676 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-3%) realized −$434 · open +$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%46W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$293
7 days−$515
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 44% +$660
other 30% −$620
world 11% −$8
politics 7% −$32
crypto 4% −$163
finance 3% −$225
sports 1% −$13
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -39.2% -45.0% 29% 20% -22.7%
≤30d 44 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 23% -10.9%
≤90d 52 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 29% -7.6%
all 129 -15.5% -23.6% 36% 29% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 29% -14.3%
10% -30.9% 23% -22.5%
15% -37.6% 19% -30.0%
20% -43.7% 14% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$30 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$434
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses46 / 83
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)129 / 136
History coverage512d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 48¢ 78¢ $263 $428 +$165 (+63%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $83 $77 −$6 (-7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$53 -50%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 −$22 -73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$57 +129%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$16 -32%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$154 -75%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $118 +$33 +28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$9 -46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$71 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $58 −$56 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $51 −$6 -12%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $299 +$6 +2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$108 -53%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 14 $402 +$17 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$31 -60%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 +$14 +28%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $133 −$25 -19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $490 +$86 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $352 +$50 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $113 −$51 -45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $66 −$48 -72%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $156 +$35 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $63 −$32 -50%
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $610 +$343 +56%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 07 $20 −$2 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 07 $14 +$1 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 05 $82 −$3 -4%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? Apr 16 $35 +$16 +44%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Apr 08 $110 +$22 +20%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $293 −$46 -16%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $44 +$56 +126%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 06 $201 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $32 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 52¢ $52 9h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 6¢ $3 27h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 10¢ $5 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $40 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $30 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $54 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 28h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 36h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 35¢ $48 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 38h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 87¢ $157 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 56¢ $20 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $7 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $54 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.16 · official $670.16 (match) · 356 history records