Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d1b…86d0 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-14%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$144
tech 2% −$10
economics 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -24.0% -31.2% 38% 38% -36.4%
≤30d 16 -24.0% -31.2% 38% 38% -36.4%
≤90d 32 -26.3% -33.3% 41% 38% -42.7%
all 32 -26.3% -33.3% 41% 38% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 38% -42.7%
10% -39.7% 38% -48.2%
15% -45.5% 34% -53.2%
20% -50.8% 31% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage77d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$17 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$30 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 07 $21 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 03 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 03 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 03 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 03 $23 −$17 -77%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of t Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $14 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records