Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d1b…ffc0 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,081 (+16%) realized +$2,264 · open −$183
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate64%30W / 17L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$543
7 days+$1,086
14 days+$1,942
30 days+$1,942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 38% +$837
sports 24% +$1,337
other 19% −$522
world 8% −$38
economics 5% +$1
crypto 5% +$180
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.9% -5.1% 55% 45% +8.5%
≤30d 27 +14.1% +3.2% 63% 52% +15.6%
≤90d 34 +6.0% -4.1% 65% 41% +13.6%
all 47 +4.9% -5.1% 64% 38% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 38% +7.3%
10% -14.2% 32% -2.9%
15% -22.5% 28% -12.3%
20% -30.1% 21% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$75 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$1,958
Realized+$2,264
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses30 / 17
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions10
Markets (closed)47 / 57
History coverage109d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $352 $378 +$26 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 74¢ 74¢ $370 $372 +$2 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $298 $296 −$2 (-1%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 60¢ 66¢ $240 $266 +$26 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $192 $197 +$5 (+3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 77¢ 94¢ $83 $102 +$19 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $109 $93 −$16 (-15%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 26¢ $268 $92 −$176 (-66%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $112 $81 −$31 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $118 $80 −$37 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $280 −$275 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $327 +$293 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $495 −$148 -30%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $225 +$165 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $208 −$204 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $263 +$177 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $235 +$112 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $233 +$217 +93%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $224 +$206 +92%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $309 +$141 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $99 +$201 +203%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $148 −$145 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $191 −$94 -49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $268 −$11 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $165 −$5 -3%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 16 $148 +$9 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $781 +$704 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $189 −$143 -76%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $500 +$18 +4%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $108 −$108 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $312 +$88 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $460 +$140 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $415 +$85 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $445 +$439 +99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $167 +$190 +114%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 08 $32 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or higher on April 8 Apr 08 $29 +$3 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 07 $28 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $301 +$19 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22? Mar 23 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March Mar 23 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 21? Mar 20 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 21? Mar 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 21? Mar 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 20 $1,800 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 06 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 06 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $301 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $280 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $327 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $151 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $332 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 23h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $225 23h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 56¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $208 27h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $57 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $263 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 32h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 56¢ $108 40h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 56¢ $3 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $235 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $233 46h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $210 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $14 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $109 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 74¢ $377 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $197 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $309 3d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $3 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $21 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $12 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $66 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $97 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $191 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,958.29 · official $1,958.35 (match) · 272 history records