Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7d1b…e75c
world · 143 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$14,810 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12,733 · open +$1,380
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,481
Realized+$12,733
Unrealized+$1,380
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses71 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions39
Markets (closed)104 / 143
History coverage158d
Avg bet$495
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 39 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$295
30 days+$1,747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $5,949 $6,763 +$814 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 68¢ 93¢ $3,634 $4,946 +$1,312 (+36%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $624 $1,207 +$584 (+94%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $955 $1,112 +$157 (+16%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $665 $693 +$29 (+4%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 83¢ 91¢ $586 $640 +$54 (+9%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $2,482 $617 −$1,865 (-75%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $784 $568 −$216 (-28%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $435 $442 +$7 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? No 66¢ 76¢ $307 $356 +$49 (+16%)
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $326 $337 +$11 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $264 $329 +$65 (+25%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $239 $316 +$78 (+33%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $261 $270 +$9 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $252 $262 +$10 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $198 $220 +$22 (+11%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 41¢ 69¢ $113 $193 +$80 (+71%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 35¢ $145 $169 +$24 (+17%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 98¢ $133 $161 +$28 (+21%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $113 $149 +$35 (+31%)
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? No 87¢ 96¢ $133 $147 +$13 (+10%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $133 $122 −$12 (-9%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $98 $112 +$14 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $61 $71 +$9 (+15%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 75¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLD? Jun 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Jun 02 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $249 +$6 +2%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $108 +$14 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $187 +$9 +5%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $128 +$7 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $420 +$74 +18%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? Jun 01 $917 +$104 +11%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 01 $995 +$77 +8%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $428 +$898 +210%
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $60 +$119 +198%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $1,440 −$1,009 -70%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 +$3 +23%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $36 +$64 +177%
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $132 +$34 +25%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $200 +$86 +43%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $83 +$34 +41%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $145 +$1,438 +989%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $46 −$37 -79%
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? May 08 $5 −$2 -33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $164 +$15 +9%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by April 30? May 01 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? May 01 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? May 01 $756 +$106 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? May 01 $527 +$33 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026? May 01 $907 +$110 +12%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $336 −$240 -71%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $904 −$798 -88%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $584 +$1,423 +244%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30? Apr 22 $706 −$604 -86%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 5? Apr 21 $9 +$1 +11%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament Apr 21 $447 −$281 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% +$8,967
tech 24% +$1,197
other 10% +$2,823
politics 10% +$1,125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 14m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 49m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 49m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 49m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 56m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 56m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 56m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath SELL No 3¢ $13 5h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 6h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 6h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 90¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 34 +15.0% +4.0% 56% 38% +21.6%
≤90d 79 +3.8% -6.1% 59% 41% +4.9%
all 104 +61.2% +45.8% 68% 46% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.8% 46% +13.8%
10% ← realistic here +31.9% 25% +2.9%
15% +19.1% 20% -7.1%
20% +7.5% 12% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,481.02 · official $20,481.05 (match) · 3500 history records