Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d1d…3779 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+6%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$19
other 15% +$6
sports 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.3% -6.5% 82% 47% -0.3%
≤30d 17 +3.3% -6.5% 82% 47% -0.3%
≤90d 17 +3.3% -6.5% 82% 47% -0.3%
all 17 +3.3% -6.5% 82% 47% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 47% -0.3%
10% -15.5% 35% -9.9%
15% -23.7% 18% -18.6%
20% -31.1% 12% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records