Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d1d…b4d8 weather 90 markets active 8h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-11%) realized −$21 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate64%56W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% +$2
other 16% +$3
crypto 15% −$15
sports 10% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -5.8% -14.8% 70% 39% -13.9%
≤30d 75 -9.1% -17.8% 67% 40% -14.5%
≤90d 88 -13.0% -21.3% 64% 39% -19.6%
all 88 -13.0% -21.3% 64% 39% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -19.6%
10% -28.8% 24% -27.3%
15% -35.7% 17% -34.3%
20% -42.0% 14% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses56 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage34d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +42%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 70¢ $2 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $3 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $1 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $3 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.54 · official $4.54 (match) · 176 history records