Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d1d…bfd0 crypto 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+0%) realized +$144 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%226W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$16
14 days+$33
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$134
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 25 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 66 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 226 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$543) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses226 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage543d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $613 $615 +$2 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $609 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $606 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $605 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $602 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $600 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $597 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $592 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $591 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $588 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $585 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $583 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $582 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $580 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $576 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $575 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $574 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $573 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $570 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $567 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $565 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $563 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $561 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 15 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $553 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $547 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $613 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $609 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $606 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $605 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $602 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $600 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $597 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $592 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $591 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $588 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $585 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $583 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $582 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $580 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $580 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $580 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $576 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $576 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $575 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $574 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $573 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $572 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $570 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $569 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $567 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $565 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $563 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $563 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $561 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $615.70 · official $615.70 (match) · 463 history records