Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d20…71f4 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,994 (+39%) realized +$3,883 · open +$111
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$5,446
other 15% −$1,465
world 3% −$260
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -29.8% -36.5% 23% 18% +21.9%
≤30d 22 -29.8% -36.5% 23% 18% +21.9%
≤90d 22 -29.8% -36.5% 23% 18% +21.9%
all 22 -29.8% -36.5% 23% 18% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 18% +21.9%
10% -42.5% 18% +10.2%
15% -48.1% 18% -0.5%
20% -53.2% 14% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$589) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late -84% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,551 vs −$250 · ×6.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$3,883
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$450
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 100¢ $135 $246 +$111 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $504 −$359 -71%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $391 −$383 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $282 −$275 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,993 +$966 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $261 −$257 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $606 −$590 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,328 +$4,756 +358%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,437 −$107 -8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $705 −$688 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $267 −$260 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $219 −$55 -25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $86 −$69 -80%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $589 +$1,692 +287%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $253 +$339 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $55 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $137 41m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over $145 42m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $504 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $289 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $77 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,959 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,993 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $261 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $507 19h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes $103 20h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes $103 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $606 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 21¢ $1,328 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 44¢ $1,330 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $1,437 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $682 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $23 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 45h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes $103 45h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $164 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $164 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $219 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over $17 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $86 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,281 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.47 · official $246.47 (match) · 39 history records