Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d21…e18c crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.6% -20.1% 60% 27% -11.0%
≤30d 15 -11.6% -20.1% 60% 27% -11.0%
≤90d 15 -11.6% -20.1% 60% 27% -11.0%
all 15 -11.6% -20.1% 60% 27% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 27% -11.0%
10% -27.7% 27% -19.5%
15% -34.7% 20% -27.3%
20% -41.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $22 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $27 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records