Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7D 0x7d23…2c0f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$99 (+50%) realized +$99 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate70%7W / 3L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Kalshi-fit9%portable

Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+31.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+45.6%	+31.7%	70%	70%	+26.3%
≤30d	10	+45.6%	+31.7%	70%	70%	+26.3%
≤90d	10	+45.6%	+31.7%	70%	70%	+26.3%
all	10	+45.6%	+31.7%	70%	70%	+26.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.7%	70%	+26.3%
10%	+19.1%	70%	+14.2%
15%	+7.6%	70%	+3.2%
20%	-2.9%	50%	-6.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$28

Realized+$99

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses7 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage6d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	70¢	$28	$28	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$34	+$24	+70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$30	+291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$33	+$21	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$16	+$17	+105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$7	+$10	+134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$11	−$11	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$15	+$7	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$28	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$30	5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$34	30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$33	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$16	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$7	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$11	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$15	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.92 · official $27.92 (match) · 19 history records