Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7d26…791d
crypto · 425 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$377 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$484 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$106
Realized−$484
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses216 / 202
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)418 / 425
History coverage208d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 7 History 418 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$569
7 days−$569
14 days−$543
30 days−$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 35¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? No 16¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$18 +87%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $115 −$21 -18%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $815 −$499 -61%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $165 +$26 +16%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 20 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 20 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 19 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 18 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 15 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 15 $26 +$7 +27%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 07 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 03 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 02 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 02 $5 $0 -1%
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 233.5 Apr 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Bucharest Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex Molcan Apr 01 $5 +$2 +34%
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Apr 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 31 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 31 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $5 +$1 +24%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $5 −$1 -19%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $5 −$3 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% −$217
other 26% −$208
sports 1% −$25
politics 0% −$38
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 17¢ $66 3h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $316 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 23¢ $0 10h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 23¢ $86 10h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 23¢ $3 10h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 23¢ $1 10h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 23¢ $1 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 28h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $191 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.9% -44.7% 29% 29% -59.5%
≤30d 17 -27.6% -34.5% 41% 41% -48.7%
≤90d 75 -15.4% -23.5% 45% 44% -31.0%
all 418 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 45% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 45% -14.2%
10% -18.5% 33% -22.4%
15% -26.4% 23% -29.9%
20% -33.6% 16% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.90 · official $105.90 (match) · 1404 history records