Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d26…a7d1 other 330 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$34,507 (+8%) realized +$25,643 · open +$4,924
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate51%143W / 140L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,319per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$26,512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$466
7 days+$669
14 days+$4,362
30 days−$8,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$38,143
politics 28% +$1,556
crypto 16% −$8,774
world 2% −$61
tech 1% −$139
sports 0% −$158
economics 0% +$28
finance 0% −$18
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.0% -27.6% 27% 18% -1.2%
≤30d 37 -12.9% -21.2% 27% 16% -14.4%
≤90d 108 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 28% -10.4%
all 283 +3.7% -6.2% 51% 27% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 27% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 19% -12.9%
15% -23.4% 13% -21.3%
20% -30.9% 10% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,261) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$217 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$26,512
Realized+$25,643
Unrealized+$4,924
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses143 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions47
Markets (closed)283 / 330
History coverage200d
Avg bet$1,319
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 92¢ $3,873 $4,858 +$984 (+25%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 62¢ $2,956 $3,571 +$615 (+21%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 86¢ $1,529 $2,194 +$666 (+44%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,910 $1,900 −$10 (-1%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 15¢ 52¢ $440 $1,522 +$1,082 (+246%)
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 55¢ 66¢ $1,158 $1,403 +$245 (+21%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $1,045 $1,124 +$79 (+8%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 95¢ $750 $829 +$79 (+11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 49¢ 42¢ $698 $594 −$104 (-15%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 41¢ 48¢ $487 $569 +$82 (+17%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 45¢ 55¢ $455 $550 +$95 (+21%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 51¢ 60¢ $452 $531 +$79 (+17%)
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 86¢ $369 $502 +$133 (+36%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No 68¢ 76¢ $442 $498 +$57 (+13%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 43¢ $439 $485 +$46 (+10%)
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 80¢ $375 $477 +$102 (+27%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 26¢ 58¢ $201 $446 +$245 (+122%)
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10? No 81¢ 88¢ $384 $419 +$35 (+9%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $409 $400 −$9 (-2%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 82¢ $356 $396 +$40 (+11%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 81¢ 72¢ $390 $347 −$43 (-11%)
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? No 41¢ 69¢ $179 $306 +$127 (+71%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 26¢ 26¢ $279 $282 +$3 (+1%)
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $205 $267 +$62 (+30%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 35¢ 65¢ $132 $242 +$110 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $238 +$217 +91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,709 −$29 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $225 −$129 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $408 −$227 -56%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 13 $557 +$14 +2%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 13 $428 −$230 -54%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 13 $489 −$83 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $52 −$38 -73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $406 −$22 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $396 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2,706 +$1,195 +44%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $13 +$87 +652%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Jun 02 $190 −$55 -29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13,002 +$3,662 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $13,708 −$11,476 -84%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1,571 +$414 +26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $1,877 −$26 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $1,140 +$15 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 24 $8 −$2 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 22 $119 −$62 -52%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $109,411 $0 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $14 +$6 +39%
Ebola emergency by June 30? May 21 $13 −$3 -26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 21 $17 −$14 -82%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 550.0k by May 31? May 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 21 $3,417 −$988 -29%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 600.0k by May 31? May 21 $73 −$70 -95%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? May 20 $52 −$12 -24%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 300.0k by May 31? May 20 $128 −$106 -83%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? May 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will John Fleming drop out? May 19 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31? May 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 16 $105 −$53 -50%
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect May 15 $94 −$50 -54%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 14 $1 $0 -23%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? May 11 $43 −$27 -62%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $40 +$2 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 06 $87 +$3 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 06 $37 +$1 +3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $436 +$6 +1%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 03 $7,635 +$687 +9%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? May 02 $418 +$22 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $2,671 +$1,302 +49%
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch? Apr 30 $415 +$233 +56%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $2,950 −$73 -2%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 28 $1,424 +$82 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 41¢ $11 6m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 54m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $75 59m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 42¢ $306 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $449 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $189 1h
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 69¢ $62 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $292 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 1h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $219 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $313 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $319 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $200 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $411 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $500 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $231 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No $26 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $181 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $8 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $25 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,511.81 · official $26,511.98 (match) · 3500 history records