Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d2c…c803 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,878 (-3%) realized −$1,878 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%37W / 55L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$687per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2,172
14 days+$4,299
30 days+$4,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 76% −$1,037
world 23% +$385
other 1% −$50
sports 1% +$53
politics 0% −$211
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -41.4% -47.0% 33% 17% +8.6%
≤30d 16 -48.7% -53.6% 25% 19% +17.1%
≤90d 62 -14.6% -22.8% 42% 31% -10.8%
all 92 -13.2% -21.4% 40% 27% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 27% -10.9%
10% -28.9% 20% -19.4%
15% -35.8% 18% -27.2%
20% -42.1% 15% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$142 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,878
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses37 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage106d
Avg bet$687
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $6,859 +$369 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $3,643 +$1,829 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $359 −$14 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $2,758 +$2,112 +77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $55 −$46 -85%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $186 −$164 -88%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 06 $9 +$9 +96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $10 −$1 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Apr 30 $2 $0 -14%
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $14 −$14 -100%
GPT-5.5 released by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 18 $2 +$4 +215%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $2 +$4 +167%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $412 +$16 +4%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Apr 13 $631 +$22 +4%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winne Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 13 $79 +$14 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 12 $6,524 −$1,981 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 11 $12 +$2 +20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 07 $5,998 +$504 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game Apr 07 $4 +$1 +22%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 07 $8 +$3 +33%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 07 $3 +$2 +73%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $3 +$7 +217%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $20 +$2 +10%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $3 −$2 -55%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $9 +$14 +154%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 06 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $5 −$3 -54%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers L Apr 06 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 48m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5,297 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $76 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $7,196 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $7,228 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,833 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $86 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $86 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $162 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $438 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $3,738 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $0 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $0 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $0 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $0 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $316 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $444 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $203 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $888 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $27 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $3 7d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 74¢ $4 7d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.42 · official $2.42 (match) · 702 history records