Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7D 0x7d30…0187 world 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+2%) realized +$59 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$4
sports 25% +$48
other 25% +$1
politics 14% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.8% -12.0% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -7.7%
all 9 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -7.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -16.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -24.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.58 per $1 lost it wins $24.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Yes 54¢ 47¢ $54 $47 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $326 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $326 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 19 $324 $0 +0%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 19 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -15%
Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) Jun 10 $342 +$25 +7%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 10 $332 $0 +0%
Spread: Liberia (-2.5) Jun 09 $319 +$23 +7%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 09 $317 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 18m
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $329 48m
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $326 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $326 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $289 2h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $324 21h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $324 22h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $313 22h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $314 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 7d
Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) BUY Rune Eaters 93¢ $342 9d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $332 9d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $332 9d
Spread: Liberia (-2.5) BUY Sierra Leone 93¢ $319 10d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $319 10d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $317 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.00 · official $47.00 (match) · 22 history records