Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d30…cdbe crypto 1542 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,394 (-15%) realized −$4,394 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%477W / 798L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day105.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 436 -56.3% -60.4% 19% 18% -52.0%
≤30d 1275 -1.6% -11.0% 37% 37% -8.5%
≤90d 1275 -1.6% -11.0% 37% 37% -8.5%
all 1275 -1.6% -11.0% 37% 37% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 37% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 36% -17.3%
15% -27.3% 35% -25.3%
20% -34.4% 32% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$17 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses477 / 798
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1275 / 1542
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day105.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1275 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records