Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d32…d09b other 13 markets active 7h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$99 (-5%) realized −$101 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$119
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 25% -15.7%
≤30d 12 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 25% -15.7%
≤90d 12 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 25% -15.7%
all 12 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 25% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 25% -15.7%
10% -22.1% 17% -23.7%
15% -29.6% 17% -31.1%
20% -36.5% 8% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$55 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $219 $221 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $213 +$11 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $192 +$21 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 −$17 -26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $399 −$328 -82%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $404 −$13 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $348 +$143 +41%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 +$146 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $221 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 12h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $223 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $213 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $24 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $214 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $192 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $67 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $65 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $399 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $391 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $491 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $348 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 10¢ $239 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.81 · official $220.81 (match) · 28 history records