Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d33…80a6 other 25 markets active 3h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$839 (-19%) realized −$251 · open −$588
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$398
14 days−$398
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,271
crypto 32% −$577
sports 16% +$865
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% -25.8%
≤30d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% -25.8%
≤90d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% -25.8%
all 22 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 45% -25.8%
10% -19.0% 41% -32.9%
15% -26.8% 36% -39.4%
20% -34.0% 27% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$117 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,487
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$588
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1,000 $760 −$240 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1,000 $653 −$347 (-35%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $47 +$29 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $38 +$13 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $41 −$4 -11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $79 +$40 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $21 +$14 +67%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $26 +$16 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $47 +$18 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $130 −$125 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$21 +41%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $53 +$34 +64%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $42 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $42 −$18 -42%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $834 −$821 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $354 +$811 +230%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $78 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $47 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 12¢ $37 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 12¢ $41 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 6¢ $11 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 19¢ $26 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $52 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 72¢ $118 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $79 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 48¢ $35 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $21 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 76¢ $43 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $26 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $65 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $47 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $74 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $53 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $104 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 20¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 15¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,487.19 · official $1,487.19 (match) · 54 history records