trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +9.6% | -0.8% | 100% | 0% | -0.8% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +9.6% | -0.8% | 100% | 0% | -0.8% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +5.3% | -4.7% | 100% | 0% | -4.5% |
| all | 18 | +10.7% | +0.2% | 78% | 28% | -6.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.2% | 28% | -6.8% |
| 10% | -9.4% | 28% | -15.8% |
| 15% | -18.2% | 22% | -23.9% |
| 20% | -26.2% | 6% | -31.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 21¢ | 21¢ | $195 | $194 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | $100 | $105 | +$5 (+5%) |
| Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 39¢ | 38¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 23¢ | 23¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | Yes | 53¢ | 30¢ | $10 | $6 | −$4 (-44%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 28 | $100 | +$10 | +10% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev | May 25 | $90 | +$1 | +1% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 26 | $167 | −$68 | -41% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 202 | Jan 20 | $150 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Dec 31 | $115 | +$54 | +47% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 25 | $11 | +$9 | +89% |
| Will it Snow in New York City this December? | Dec 03 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will it Snow in Boston this December? | Dec 03 | $20 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will it Snow in Pittsburgh this December? | Dec 03 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 26 | $9 | −$6 | -70% |
| Will Germany win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Nov 18 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | Nov 14 | $50 | +$4 | +7% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 13 | $19 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? | Nov 10 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Nov 10 | $3 | +$1 | +41% |
| Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by November 30? | Nov 10 | $6 | +$3 | +45% |
| Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31? | Nov 10 | $39 | +$13 | +34% |
| ARB above $1.50 on May 3? | Oct 27 | $90 | +$4 | +4% |