Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d3c…9bb8 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$142 (-31%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$130
other 48% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.2% -8.5% 21% 21% -17.3%
≤30d 14 +1.2% -8.5% 21% 21% -17.3%
≤90d 14 +1.2% -8.5% 21% 21% -17.3%
all 14 +1.2% -8.5% 21% 21% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 21% -17.3%
10% -17.2% 21% -25.2%
15% -25.2% 21% -32.4%
20% -32.6% 21% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$28 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $15 +$22 +145%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $21 +$161 +785%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $19 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg Jun 28 $47 +$88 +186%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $37 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 40¢ $15 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 8h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg SELL 93¢ $135 44h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 47¢ $38 46h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 46h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 32¢ $47 46h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $61 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. BUY 4¢ $31 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. BUY 19¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records