Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d3e…346a sports 28 markets active 4d ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,404 (-12%) realized +$56 · open −$2,460
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$742per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$9,665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$49
14 days+$237
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$3,152
world 23% +$3,088
crypto 14% +$121
economics 13% −$2,382
sports 4% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 +25.9% +13.9% 33% 33% +51.6%
≤90d 12 +35.6% +22.7% 33% 33% +4.9%
all 20 +17.8% +6.5% 30% 30% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 30% -9.0%
10% -3.7% 30% -17.7%
15% -13.0% 25% -25.7%
20% -21.5% 25% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$547) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$675 vs −$286 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$9,665
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$2,460
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)20 / 28
History coverage178d
Avg bet$742
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 42¢ $7,679 $5,545 −$2,134 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 54¢ $1,567 $1,581 +$14 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $1,170 $1,305 +$135 (+12%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 32¢ $1,087 $586 −$502 (-46%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $282 $308 +$26 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $192 $215 +$23 (+12%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $97 $79 −$18 (-18%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$49 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$120 +239%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$316 +316%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 01 $1,000 −$954 -95%
Panthers vs. Senators Apr 09 $192 −$192 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $338 +$1,735 +513%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $841 +$684 +81%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $2,095 −$495 -24%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $223 −$219 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 18 $443 −$443 -100%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $235 −$230 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 06 $547 −$547 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $996 +$314 +32%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $221 +$883 +399%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $285 −$33 -11%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $242 −$227 -94%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 24 $464 −$464 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $299 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $52 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 10d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,009 32d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,987 37d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,215 43d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,239 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1,000 53d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $542 61d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,087 65d
Panthers vs. Senators BUY Panthers 25¢ $192 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,073 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $338 78d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $797 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,525 78d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes $4 82d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $841 82d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes $4 83d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,024 83d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $443 96d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,664.64 · official $9,664.64 (match) · 70 history records