trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +25.9% | +13.9% | 33% | 33% | +51.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +35.6% | +22.7% | 33% | 33% | +4.9% |
| all | 20 | +17.8% | +6.5% | 30% | 30% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +6.5% | 30% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -3.7% | 30% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -13.0% | 25% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -21.5% | 25% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 42¢ | $7,679 | $5,545 | −$2,134 (-28%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 54¢ | 54¢ | $1,567 | $1,581 | +$14 (+1%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 39¢ | 44¢ | $1,170 | $1,305 | +$135 (+12%) |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 32¢ | $1,087 | $586 | −$502 (-46%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $282 | $308 | +$26 (+9%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $192 | $215 | +$23 (+12%) |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 30¢ | 24¢ | $97 | $79 | −$18 (-18%) |
| Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 24¢ | $50 | $45 | −$5 (-10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $51 | −$49 | -97% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $52 | −$50 | -96% |
| Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $50 | +$120 | +239% |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $100 | +$316 | +316% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $52 | −$51 | -98% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | May 01 | $1,000 | −$954 | -95% |
| Panthers vs. Senators | Apr 09 | $192 | −$192 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 07 | $338 | +$1,735 | +513% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 06 | $841 | +$684 | +81% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 02 | $2,095 | −$495 | -24% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Apr 01 | $223 | −$219 | -98% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Mar 18 | $443 | −$443 | -100% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Mar 16 | $235 | −$230 | -98% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 06 | $547 | −$547 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $996 | +$314 | +32% |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | Feb 28 | $221 | +$883 | +399% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 27 | $285 | −$33 | -11% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Feb 09 | $242 | −$227 | -94% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Dec 24 | $464 | −$464 | -100% |