Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d46…1eac sports 22 markets active 8d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$140 (-24%) realized −$150 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$12
other 46% −$119
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -21.9% -29.3% 33% 33% -34.8%
≤90d 21 -21.9% -29.3% 33% 33% -34.8%
all 21 -21.9% -29.3% 33% 33% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 33% -34.8%
10% -36.1% 33% -41.1%
15% -42.2% 33% -46.8%
20% -47.9% 33% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $32 $42 +$10 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$26 +85%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$30 +97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.99 · official $41.99 (match) · 43 history records