Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:36:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d49…635e world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$1
other 12% −$7
finance 1% $0
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 26 -0.8% -10.2% 31% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 36 -6.1% -15.1% 31% 3% -9.8%
all 39 -7.5% -16.3% 33% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -24.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage533d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 +$2 +7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $71 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $108 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 +$2 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $102 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $74 −$5 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $33 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 −$1 -27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $16 −$2 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $66 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $39 +$3 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $11 +$2 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $18 −$1 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $559 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $216 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $252 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $255 −$2 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $12 +$1 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $531 +$1 +0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will 29-32 people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $39 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $39 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $2 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $3 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $5 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $17 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $17 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $33 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.56 (match) · 153 history records