Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d4a…b3c5 crypto 605 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,305 (-7%) realized −$2,271 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate16%117W / 626L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$8,394
other 3% −$236
sports 2% +$501
world 0% −$26
finance 0% −$18
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -69.1% -72.0% 12% 10% -55.6%
≤30d 316 -60.0% -63.8% 15% 12% -49.5%
≤90d 615 -57.1% -61.2% 17% 14% -46.7%
all 743 -60.6% -64.3% 16% 14% -49.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.3% 14% -49.7%
10% ← realistic here -67.7% 11% -54.5%
15% -70.9% 10% -58.9%
20% -73.7% 8% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$32 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$2,271
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses117 / 626
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions21
Markets (closed)743 / 605
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 743 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+125%)
Mexico leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-75%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 479 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 37m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 37m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 37m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 38m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 38m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 38m
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 38m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 39m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 40m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 40m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 40m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 40m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 41m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $384 41m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $50 41m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $7 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.67 · official $308.67 (match) · 3500 history records