Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7D 0x7d4c…fc89 crypto 660 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,933 (-20%) realized −$9,929 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate62%406W / 244L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$579est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days−$2,622
14 days−$6,661
30 days−$10,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$10,019
crypto 8% −$232
world 0% +$14
politics 0% −$6
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -40.6% -46.3% 27% 24% -50.3%
≤30d 649 -14.3% -22.5% 62% 36% -28.4%
≤90d 650 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 36% -28.4%
all 650 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 36% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 36% -28.4%
10% -29.9% 29% -35.3%
15% -36.6% 24% -41.5%
20% -42.9% 20% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$99 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized−$9,929
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses406 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$579
Open positions10
Markets (closed)650 / 660
History coverage41d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 82¢ 81¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 56¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 49¢ 48¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 48¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 47¢ 46¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 44¢ 44¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 40¢ 40¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 38¢ 38¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 37¢ 36¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $30 −$3 -11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $31 +$48 +158%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $30 +$36 +119%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $30 +$32 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $101 −$37 -37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $101 −$18 -17%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $30 +$35 +114%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $31 +$44 +146%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $402 +$101 +25%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $132 −$130 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $406 −$39 -10%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1,300 +$13 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $404 −$400 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $406 −$400 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $405 −$400 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $808 +$28 +4%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $403 +$110 +27%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $304 +$213 +70%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $404 +$168 +42%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $304 +$296 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $304 −$300 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $404 +$230 +57%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $404 −$400 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $403 +$123 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $34 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $34 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 48¢ $35 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $35 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $35 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $35 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $35 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $35 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $35 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $35 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $27 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $30 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $30 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $30 26h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $31 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $31 27h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $30 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $30 27h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $30 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $31 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $30 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 34¢ $64 27h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $84 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $31 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $31 45h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $30 45h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $31 45h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $31 45h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $30 45h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $30 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.34 · official $336.35 (match) · 1135 history records