Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d4d…8e15 politics 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$376 (+0%) realized +$376 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,580per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$126
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$141
other 34% −$71
sports 11% +$545
world 2% −$4
economics 2% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 111 -10.5% -19.0% 6% 4% -9.8%
all 151 -1.1% -10.5% 15% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 12% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 12% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 9% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,904) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$12 · ×6.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$376
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,580
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $1,904 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,140 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $5,283 −$6 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $276 +$3 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $4,313 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,733 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,796 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,593 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,440 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $84 +$42 +50%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $67 +$79 +119%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,649 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $7,592 −$9 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $542 +$2 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,592 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,529 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,550 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $4,297 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,628 −$3 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $77 +$59 +76%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $7,013 −$8 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $8,540 −$9 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $618 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $1,615 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 19 $317 $0 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $747 +$755 +101%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $245 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 3h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $273 4h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $273 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $253 9h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $254 10h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,585 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,586 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 5d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,651 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,654 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,585 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,563 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,565 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,636 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,639 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,535 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,537 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,641 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $59 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $197 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,652 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 487 history records