Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7D 0x7d50…8965 crypto 360 markets active 20h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$782 (+27%) realized +$782 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%242W / 118L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$407
14 days+$820
30 days+$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$798
economics 2% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +26.1% +14.1% 67% 59% +22.3%
≤30d 104 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 62% +25.2%
≤90d 360 -6.7% -15.6% 67% 48% +14.4%
all 360 -6.7% -15.6% 67% 48% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 48% +14.4%
10% -23.7% 35% +3.5%
15% -31.0% 17% -6.5%
20% -37.8% 11% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$782
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses242 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)360 / 360
History coverage62d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 360 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$36 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$37 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$569 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $90 +$130 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $69 +$23 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $201 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$17 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$20 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$13 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$14 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$178 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$281 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$52 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $19 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 926 history records