Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d51…c019 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized −$47 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days+$210
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% +$154
other 41% −$143
crypto 1% −$1
culture 1% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.4% -45.2% 0% 0% -51.5%
≤30d 16 -33.6% -40.0% 38% 6% -13.1%
≤90d 16 -33.6% -40.0% 38% 6% -13.1%
all 17 -32.0% -38.5% 35% 6% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 6% -13.1%
10% -44.4% 6% -21.4%
15% -49.7% 6% -29.0%
20% -54.7% 6% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$26 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions18
Markets (closed)17 / 35
History coverage148d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the median home value in Chicago be greater than $354,000 on June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $119 $119 +$1 (+0%)
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,000 on June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,174,000 and $1,188,000 on June 30? No 97¢ 95¢ $67 $65 −$1 (-2%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%? Yes 6¢ 24¢ $16 $60 +$44 (+278%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $47 $57 +$9 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 on June 30? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+27%)
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 on June 30? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-20%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $12 $21 +$8 (+65%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be below -3%? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $27 $19 −$7 (-27%)
Will the median home value in the US be between $437,000 and $439,000 on June 30? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? Yes 3¢ 36¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+1117%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+322%)
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,172,000 and $1,181,000 on June 30? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B? Yes 10¢ 46¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+343%)
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,181,000 and $1,190,000 on June 30? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 77.5% and 80%? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+77%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be above 3%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 22 $1 $0 -8%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 22 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 14 $262 +$4 +1%
Will Costco Q3 US adjusted comparable sales growth be between 5.5% and Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $390 +$24 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $107 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $73 +$190 +259%
Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.8B? May 28 $154 −$150 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Fe May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 29? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.4B? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.6B? May 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 26? May 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Feb Feb 13 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the median home value in Chicago be greater than $354,000 on June BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will the median home value in Chicago be greater than $354,000 on June BUY No 96¢ $9 1h
Will the median home value in Chicago be greater than $354,000 on June BUY No 96¢ $53 1h
Will the median home value in Chicago be greater than $354,000 on June BUY No 95¢ $24 1h
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,0 BUY No 97¢ $24 1h
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,0 BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between BUY No 97¢ $37 2h
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between BUY No 97¢ $29 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $437,000 and $439,000 BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $437,000 and $439,000 BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $437,000 and $439,000 BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2h
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1 BUY Yes 42¢ $4 3h
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1 BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be below -3%? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.70 · official $515.70 (match) · 179 history records