Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d51…0e4c other 11 markets active 1d ago coverage 45d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$580 (-31%) realized −$580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$584
30 days−$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$604
sports 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -39.3% -45.1% 18% 18% -63.5%
≤90d 11 -39.3% -45.1% 18% 18% -63.5%
all 11 -39.3% -45.1% 18% 18% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 18% -63.5%
10% -50.3% 18% -67.0%
15% -55.1% 18% -70.2%
20% -59.5% 9% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$72 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage45d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,262 −$384 -30%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $111 −$109 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $70 +$41 +58%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $82 −$12 -14%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $78 −$66 -85%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $56 −$41 -73%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 −$9 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $42 11d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 97¢ $440 11d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 88¢ $443 11d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 84¢ $427 11d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 77¢ $424 11d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 71¢ $395 11d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 44¢ $111 11d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 87¢ $111 11d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 54¢ $70 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $70 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $44 12d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 12d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $61 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $61 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $71 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records