Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7d54…6022 crypto 521 markets active 9d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,629 (+3%) realized +$1,629 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate66%341W / 179L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$787
30 days+$1,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$1,813
other 33% −$930
crypto 32% +$390
world 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 390 +3.4% -6.4% 67% 60% -6.2%
≤90d 520 +2.8% -7.0% 66% 58% -7.0%
all 520 +2.8% -7.0% 66% 58% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 58% -7.0%
10% -15.9% 48% -15.9%
15% -24.0% 37% -24.0%
20% -31.4% 29% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$72 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,629
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses341 / 179
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)520 / 521
History coverage70d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 520 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $2 +$1 +64%
Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists Jun 18 $6 +$1 +18%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 18 $21 +$5 +23%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 18 $58 +$13 +22%
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists Jun 18 $178 +$22 +12%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $207 +$93 +45%
Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals Jun 17 $130 +$33 +25%
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Jun 17 $148 +$37 +25%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $40 +$5 +14%
Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 +$1 +11%
Ivan Toney: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$15 +28%
Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $212 +$38 +18%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $195 +$55 +28%
Luka Sučić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $189 +$111 +59%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $194 +$52 +27%
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals Jun 17 $205 +$45 +22%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ assists Jun 17 $12 +$1 +9%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $309 −$308 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $112 +$137 +122%
Vitinha: 1+ goals Jun 17 $210 +$40 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
João Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 +$2 +16%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $187 +$62 +33%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $182 +$67 +37%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $123 +$20 +17%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists Jun 17 $129 +$11 +9%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 17 $111 +$37 +33%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $180 +$70 +39%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $186 +$35 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $470 +$29 +6%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $122 +$53 +43%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $22 +$10 +45%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $4 +$3 +79%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $80 +$31 +39%
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $26 8d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $55 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $140 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $12 8d
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $2 8d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 17¢ $1 9d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 17¢ $2 9d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 17¢ $0 9d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 17¢ $7 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $44 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $265 9d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $0 9d
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists BUY No 89¢ $81 9d
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $120 9d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $7 9d
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $20 9d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $3 9d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $35 9d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $76 9d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $32 9d
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists BUY No 89¢ $89 9d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1598 history records