Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

7D 0x7d58…4b1c other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 407d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$194 (-37%) realized −$193 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$74per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 407d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-13.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+90.7%	+72.5%	100%	100%	+72.8%
≤30d	2	+90.7%	+72.5%	100%	100%	+72.8%
≤90d	2	+90.7%	+72.5%	100%	100%	+72.8%
all	4	-4.7%	-13.7%	50%	50%	-37.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.7%	50%	-37.6%
10%	-22.0%	50%	-43.6%
15%	-29.5%	25%	-49.0%
20%	-36.4%	25%	-54.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +91% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$107 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage

Net worth$119

Realized−$193

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage407d

Avg bet$74

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Spirit	75¢	74¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)	Spirit	46¢	46¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$60	+$21	+34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$61	+$90	+147%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?	May 08	$107	−$107	-100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?	May 08	$108	−$108	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)	BUY Spirit	46¢	$61	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	75¢	$60	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	74¢	$60	18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN	BUY	42¢	$61	41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	40¢	$61	2d
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?	BUY Yes	23¢	$107	406d
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?	BUY Yes	28¢	$108	406d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.95 · official $118.95 (match) · 9 history records