Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d58…717b weather 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$81 (-10%) realized +$79 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate80%32W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$83
14 days−$103
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$74
weather 32% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.0% -16.7% 78% 26% -23.0%
≤30d 40 -3.2% -12.4% 80% 32% -21.7%
≤90d 40 -3.2% -12.4% 80% 32% -21.7%
all 40 -3.2% -12.4% 80% 32% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 32% -21.7%
10% -20.8% 10% -29.2%
15% -28.5% 2% -36.0%
20% -35.5% 2% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses32 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage15d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? No 80¢ 1¢ $110 $1 −$109 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 24? No 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? No 46¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? No 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $352 +$23 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$5 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$4 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? SELL No 73¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? SELL No 96¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $22 7h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 24? BUY No 84¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 90¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 87¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 71¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.85 (match) · 104 history records