Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d58…cfcc world 446 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,113 (+2%) realized +$3,893 · open +$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%150W / 237L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Fees−$346est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$12,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$2,475
14 days+$3,687
30 days+$5,476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$8,320
other 16% −$6,868
finance 8% −$1,545
sports 7% −$1,979
crypto 4% +$6,562
politics 3% +$234
tech 1% +$261
economics 0% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -40.8% -46.4% 31% 26% -13.5%
≤30d 208 -21.8% -29.2% 37% 28% -5.3%
≤90d 387 -16.9% -24.8% 39% 30% -6.6%
all 387 -16.9% -24.8% 39% 30% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 30% -6.6%
10% -32.0% 26% -15.5%
15% ← realistic here -38.6% 22% -23.7%
20% -44.6% 20% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$198 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$12,524
Realized+$3,893
Unrealized+$220
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses150 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$346
Open positions92
Markets (closed)387 / 446
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$575
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 92 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,610 $1,846 +$236 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,640 $1,376 −$264 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $860 $1,156 +$295 (+34%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 100¢ $772 $974 +$202 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $919 $961 +$42 (+5%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 95¢ $511 $667 +$156 (+30%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $582 $491 −$91 (-16%)
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $437 $455 +$18 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $359 $411 +$52 (+15%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $300 $345 +$45 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $300 $316 +$16 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $235 +$65 (+38%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $111 $198 +$87 (+79%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $290 $195 −$95 (-33%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 69¢ 95¢ $138 $189 +$52 (+38%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $177 $173 −$4 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $195 $165 −$30 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 78¢ $142 $155 +$13 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $389 $143 −$246 (-63%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $160 $135 −$25 (-16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 72¢ 47¢ $160 $104 −$56 (-35%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 96¢ 96¢ $103 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? No 82¢ 50¢ $164 $101 −$63 (-38%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $90 +$40 (+80%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 77¢ 87¢ $77 $87 +$10 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $221 −$19 -9%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 −$70 -94%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $70 +$64 +91%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $147 +$122 +83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$12 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $60 +$40 +66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $324 +$46 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $117 +$80 +69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $188 +$6 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $46 +$6 +12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $286 −$149 -52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $150 +$150 +100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $93 +$107 +115%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $363 −$20 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $150 +$106 +71%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 −$154 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $298 −$79 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $190 +$163 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,500 +$3 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $70 −$56 -80%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 14 $100 −$93 -93%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $23,550 +$5,565 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $444 −$394 -89%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $188 −$100 -53%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $90 −$30 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $515 −$447 -87%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $443 −$405 -92%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 14 $99 −$77 -78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $72 −$72 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $5 8m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $10 9m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 9¢ $10 36m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $10 52m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 27¢ $20 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 77¢ $141 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $26 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $10 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $64 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 49¢ $54 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $39 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $47 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $54 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $44 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,523.68 · official $12,532.23 (match) · 3500 history records