Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d5a…8460 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -13.2%
≤30d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -13.2%
≤90d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -13.2%
all 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.7% 20% -13.2%
10% -69.0% 20% -21.5%
15% -72.0% 20% -29.1%
20% -74.7% 20% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$19 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$72 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records