Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d5e…7e92 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$549 (-16%) realized −$549 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$457
14 days−$457
30 days−$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$89
sports 45% −$560
crypto 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -35.3% -41.5% 28% 28% -22.5%
≤30d 71 -35.7% -41.8% 27% 27% -23.4%
≤90d 71 -35.7% -41.8% 27% 27% -23.4%
all 71 -35.7% -41.8% 27% 27% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 27% -23.4%
10% -47.4% 25% -30.7%
15% -52.5% 24% -37.4%
20% -57.1% 23% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$32 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$549
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 52
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage14d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $253 +$140 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $24 −$14 -56%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $74 −$55 -74%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 −$68 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $122 +$89 +73%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $147 +$42 +28%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $25 −$3 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $176 +$96 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 −$19 -46%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 22 $5 +$4 +82%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $15 −$2 -15%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $176 −$157 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$7 -72%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $107 −$107 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $117 −$117 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $5 +$12 +226%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$114 +223%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $197 +$197 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 20¢ $148 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $98 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $98 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $196 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $253 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 18¢ $11 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 45¢ $10 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $14 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $44 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 18¢ $2 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 16¢ $3 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 14¢ $3 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $3 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 10¢ $4 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 9¢ $5 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $25 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $36 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $9 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 99¢ $211 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $6 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $189 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $24 28h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 27¢ $8 28h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 39¢ $5 28h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 38¢ $2 28h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 38¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $148.96 · 314 history records