Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d60…c4cf other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,047 (-37%) realized −$3,077 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,186per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$3,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$936
sports 28% −$921
crypto 17% −$1,404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-74.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -72.3% -74.9% 17% 17% -72.8%
≤30d 6 -72.3% -74.9% 17% 17% -72.8%
≤90d 6 -72.3% -74.9% 17% 17% -72.8%
all 6 -72.3% -74.9% 17% 17% -72.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.9% 17% -72.8%
10% -77.3% 17% -75.4%
15% -79.5% 17% -77.8%
20% -81.5% 17% -80.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$563 vs −$771 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3,530
Realized−$3,077
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,186
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $3,500 $3,530 +$30 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $236 −$232 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,414 −$1,404 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $850 +$563 +66%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $822 −$806 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $691 −$678 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $747 −$734 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $236 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,544 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,414 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $1,414 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $850 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $822 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $691 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $747 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,530.17 · official $3,530.17 (match) · 8 history records