Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7D 0x7d61…a93a crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate71%45W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$58
crypto 9% +$5
other 6% −$11
tech 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 63 -4.7% -13.8% 71% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -10.4%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses45 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage560d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 04 $24 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $28 $0 +0%
Stars vs. Kraken Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Chiefs vs. Browns Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 03 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $5,473 −$17 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 24 $18 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $23 −$5 -20%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 26 $18 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $49 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 94d
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 94d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 122d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 149d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 152d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $50 152d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $5 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $54 182d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $42 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $42 243d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $15 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $43 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $29 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $37 334d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.51 · official $68.51 (match) · 136 history records