Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7D 0x7d62…72cd weather 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$58 (+3%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$36
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$3
other 28% +$12
sports 15% +$9
weather 5% +$30
crypto 4% +$11
economics 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +50.4% +36.1% 83% 83% +30.1%
≤30d 7 +63.2% +47.7% 86% 86% +37.2%
≤90d 11 +45.7% +31.8% 82% 82% +35.1%
all 36 +12.6% +1.9% 33% 25% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 25% -6.3%
10% -7.8% 25% -15.3%
15% -16.7% 19% -23.5%
20% -24.9% 17% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage528d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $211 $211 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$13 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $24 +$11 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $12 +$12 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 10 $7 +$10 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13? May 15 $10 +$3 +32%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 15 $16 +$12 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 10? May 12 $12 +$6 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $229 $0 -0%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Aug 27 $12 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $41 −$1 -2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 20 $52 −$1 -2%
Ethereum above $4400 on August 22? Aug 18 $21 −$1 -6%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $26 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $15 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 03 $11 $0 -2%
Will Vitality win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament? Jul 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Apr 13 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Apr 11? Apr 10 $9 −$1 -10%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $17 $0 -3%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Yoon reinstated as President before July? Mar 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Mar 23 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Mar 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 06 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $211 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 55¢ $17 33h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 77¢ $20 8d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Sabres 41¢ $7 33d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Up 56¢ $16 35d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13? BUY No 75¢ $10 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 10? BUY No 64¢ $12 39d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 42d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $212 180d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 180d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $212 182d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $213 182d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $224 182d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $224 182d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $226 182d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $227 182d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $229 182d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $229 183d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL Yes 62¢ $12 294d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 295d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 69¢ $23 297d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 70¢ $23 297d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 73¢ $15 299d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 70¢ $17 299d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.25 · official $211.25 (match) · 86 history records